From the Director's Desk: May Pellet Data Published, Speaking of Winter, Hormuz Blues
Last week the EIA published May's data, bringing into sharper focus the East’s continuing struggle to rebuild pellet inventories that were largely depleted last heating season. Production in the East (85,595 tons) rebounded slightly from the same period last year when 73,879 tons were produced in May. Production in the region has eclipsed that of each month this year and total production through May in the East is 418,244 tons, up from 371,748 tons in 2025, a 12% increase. That’s an encouraging figure, and I am hopeful that producers were able to maintain this production pace through the summer and this fall, for that matter. An increase of 12% maintained throughout the year would have the region producing right at 1.1 million tons, roughly the 2021 production totals out East (1,102,826 tons). The additional 100,000 tons or better would go a long way in shoring up pellet supply.
The inventory position in the West remains bloated at 108,342 tons. Producers have taken notice and have rolled out of the throttle as best they can while still keeping their fiber suppliers happy. Since January 2025, western production has averaged just 27,268 tons per month, down over 20% from the 17 months preceding that window (August 2023 – December 2024). Winter weather in each region has largely created these unique challenges and this winter’s weather will either exacerbate these problems, or resolve them.
Speaking of Winter
Some neighbors bemoaned the loss of daylight while I was walking the dog last night. The sun set at 8:15 and we are losing about 2 minutes of daylight each day here in Minnesota. The State Fair marks the end of summer here and usually can be counted on for a few scorchers to remind folks of what it can do before it heads off for the year. In a month, the sun will set at 7:15, and we typically see our first frost in the last week of September. In Strong, Maine, the first frost comes a few weeks earlier. We are just a month away from a return to regular pellet appliance usage in some locales. There’s a certain sport in consuming the varying predictions for winter. The Farmer’s Almanac goes to great lengths to offer a prediction of what might happen. This year the forecast in the Northeast is for larger snow events. The Almanac is less bullish on deep or frigid temps.
Hormuz Blues
When the Iranian conflict began at the end of February, the heating season had largely wrapped up and the 2026-27 heating season felt like a long way off. The impact of the spike in crude oil prices and the subsequent price increases in diesel and heating oil felt blunted, or perhaps deferred. Higher crude oil prices cut both ways for pellet producers. While the economic benefit of heating with wood pellets is amplified when heating oil prices increase, they seldom increase without the cost of diesel fuel also increasing. This industry is heavily reliant on diesel fuel. Fiber arrives at production sites via diesel powered tractor trailers and finished product is delivered to retailers across the country also by diesel powered tractor trailers. Global conflict, particularly in oil producing regions, has an enormous impact on energy prices of all kinds, wood pellets included. These increases cannot be absorbed by producers, trucking companies or retailers, and ultimately consumers are on the hook for the increases. For now, the savings for consumers via wood pellet heating are clear. According to the State of Maine heating fuel report, a wood pellet stove will deliver an MMBtu at a 40% discount when compared to an oil furnace. This will be an interesting number to watch as producers weigh how much of the increased expense due to increased diesel prices to pass along. I have included a link to the Maine Heating Fuel report in the industry news section.
May Data (5 year average):
East
Sales - 76,053 tons (78,420 tons)
Production - 85,595 tons (84,816 tons)
Inventory - 119,064 tons (173,449 tons)
West
Sales - 9,839 tons (27,243 tons)
Production - 28,292 tons (34,527 tons)
Inventory - 108,342 tons (84,537 tons)
South
Sales - 5,019 tons (9,048 tons)
Production - 13,792 tons (14,406 tons)
Inventory - 27,581 tons (45,511 tons)
All U.S.
Sales - 90,911 tons (114,116 tons)
Production - 127,679 tons (139,150 tons)
Inventory - 254,987 tons (303,496 tons)
